Evaluating convection-permitting ensemble forecasts of precipitation over Southeast Asia

J3.4 Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the Rsm Ensemble Forecasts over Hydrologic Regions

Cool season precipitation plays an important role in freshwater supply over the Southwest United States, which is marked by heterogeneous topographic and hydrologic scenarios. More accurate precipitation prediction is highly desirable for both the public and hydrological model users. Numerous studies indicate that ensemble forecasting provides more skillful weather forecasts than a single deter...

Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts

Papers published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures ◭ ◮ ◭ ◮ Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion EGU Abstract A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of pr...

Precipitation over urban areas in the western Maritime Continent using a convection-permitting model

contrasts stronger, which enhances sea breeze circulations. Together, they increase near-surface moisture flux convergence and favour convective processes leading to an overall increase of precipitation over urban areas. The diurnal cycle of these effects is reflected in the atmospheric footprint of cities on variables such as humidity and cloud mixing ratio and accompanies changes in precipita...

Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts

When evaluating differences between competing precipitation forecasts, formal hypothesis testing is rarely performed. This may be due to the difficulty in applying common tests given the spatial correlation of and nonnormality of errors. Possible ways around these difficulties are explored here. Two datasets of precipitation forecasts are evaluated, a set of two competing gridded precipitation ...

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Near-Convection- Permitting and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles